Predictions for the next year

Predictions for the next year

I’ve been talking up a big game to friends about my thoughts on the future. Here’s what I think will happen in the next year. To be honest, it’s on the optimistic side, I think…

I realize the folly of trying to predict things right now, but I figured it would be fun to try. Additionally, all COVID deaths are US numbers – this is a pretty US-centric forecast. Lastly, it gets thinner the longer you project out.

I don’t want much of this to come to pass, and don’t make any decisions on it – it’s random guesses by someone who doesn’t know much. I also think there are incredible things that may happen with the BLM movement, but I’m not confident about any of that enough to write it down.

We’ll see how I do, and I’d love your thoughts in the comments!

2020 – August

  • News cycle is COVID deaths, unemployment & economy, and schools reopening
  • Congress passes a weak ’emergency extension’ of unemployment benefits for about $400 for the next month. This begins a cycle of repeated extensions until the election.
  • Biden chooses Kamala Harris as the nominee
  • Stock market tanks by 15% in a few days, but then still bounces back about 5%
  • Public schools halfheartedly go back in session and none of them last more than a month before closing
  • Government goons snatching people off the streets becomes no longer part of the news cycle
  • Latin America is widely seen as the most affected part of the world, Trump makes some racist comment suggesting that’s why he wanted to keep Latinx people out of the country in the first place, because they “carry disease” or some other nonsense
  • COVID deaths hit 2000 / day and stay there and maybe hit 2500
    • It’s possible that we hit one 9/11 per day (~3000 / day) in mid-August – if this happens, the ads write themselves, and Trump is toast

2020 – September

  • News cycle is about schools, mail-in voting fights, decreasing COVID cases, and hurricanes
  • Nearly all schools accept a remote semester by this point
  • Tons of BS about the postal service and voting and voter suppression 
  • COVID starts at 2000 deaths / day, ends at 1000 / day

2020 – October

  • News cycle is about the election, economy which has been consistently softening
    • Dear god please let it be over
  • Russia tries to start some shit via a proxy, perhaps by heating up the Ukraine war temporarily or via action in the Caucasus region or via cyberattacks on the Baltic countries or Finland. Maybe they lay claim to all of the Arctic Ocean seabed or something
  • China has it’s hands full and doesn’t want Trump in office anyways
  • A bunch of lame jokes about halloween and masks that are tiresome the first time you hear them
  • Most people wear masks, even the Trumpers start to wear them outside
  • COVID deaths end at 500 / day

2020 – November

  • News cycle is about election, then about violent retributions, then about Thanksgiving being cancelled
  • There will be halfhearted “we’re all going to unite” sentiments around Thanksgiving, but no one will buy it.
  • Trump loses, but there is massive voter suppression and hijinks
    • There’s immediately a huge section of America that does not accept it
  • It becomes a truly dark time, as there are fascist mass-shootings in places like North Carolina, Colorado, and Texas
    • This is especially the case if BLM protests are still ongoing
  • Democrats do not take the senate
  • There is a lawsuit about the results, and the supreme court ends up siding against Trump by the end of November
  • As weather gets colder, cases in the northeast start to inch up
  • Congress continues to emergency extend stimulus
  • China uses the chaos to legally remove HK’s 1-country 2-systems status
  • Several Waco-style groups declare independence from America
  • COVID deaths remain at 500 / day

2020 – December

  • News cycle is about death-by-despair, with suicides and overdoses increasing.
  • Also about vaccine hopes that don’t materialize, and about second semester plans for colleges and schools.
  • Assassination attempts against politicians – AOC, for one. These fail, but bystanders die.
  • RBG dies, massive protests as Trump tries to nominate and rush through a nominee, but ultimately he does not do so as some ousted republican senators defect (Susan Collins, for instance).
  • Additionally at this point one of the old republican senators has died of COVID.
  • Chaos in Brazil – streets become a war zone as Bolsonaro tries to crack down on protests 
  • Facebook as a platform starts dying as the politics become too much for most people and they exit the platform. Twitter will have its’ own deflation once Trump is out of office and people start going back to work.
  • COVID deaths remain at ~400 / day

2021 – January

  • News Cycle is about economy and bleak outlook, incoming administration, and vaccine hopes.
  • Biden takes office.
  • He plans to pardon Trump, but it leaks and public pressure keeps that from happening
  • Trump retreats to Mar-A-Lago and other bubbles, continues to live fairly large and be a sore loser for a while
  • Trump contracts COVID.
  • More schools have figured out how to do a hybrid model, some kids go back to school.
  • This is helped by most adults now being able to watch them at home, as unemployment has continued to climb.
  • Democrats pass a massive stimulus plan at the end of January, including half of a Green New Deal
  • COVID deaths decrease to ~ 250 / day

2021 – February

  • News Cycle is about Trump’s death, vaccine starting to be available & who gets it
  • Trump dies of complications of COVID.
    • Note: I have this prediction in here as a deus-ex-machina as I have no idea what would happen otherwise. Would he go to jail? Would he somehow escape to Russia? Would he get a pardon? Will he be assassinated?
  • People are very, very stuck inside still, and high suicide rates continue.
  • Vaccine trials have had some successes, and companies are trying to ramp up production
  • Huge fights over who will get said vaccine when it does come out
  • COVID deaths decrease to ~200 / day

2021 – March

  • News Cycle is about vaccine deployment, litigation & prosecution of Trumpers, light at end of tunnel
  • COVID deaths remain at ~200 / day

2021 – April

  • News Cycle is about slow rollout of vaccine, cancel of any school left due to that slow rollout 
  • COVID deaths remain at ~200 / day

2021 – May

  • News Cycle is about vaccine, fears that good weather will cause outbreaks again, dumbass anti-vaxxers
  • Feels like the end of the tunnel
  • Vaccine becomes available to very rich people, as well as hospital workers, EMTs, police, firefighters, etc
  • COVID deaths reduce down to ~100 / day, although covid cases start spiking again

2021 – June

  • News Cycle is fear about another wave, vaccine rollout, figuring out if it’s safe for kids and planning for the upcoming school year
  • Vaccine becomes widely available to nurses in nursing homes, some essential workers
  • COVID deaths start increasing back up to ~150 / day, COVID cases spike as well, although mostly amongst younger people

2021 – July

  • News Cycle is about vaccine including anti-vaxxers, school plans, kids.
  • US ends up reaching herd immunity in southern states & maybe CA, ironically states that did well earlier now have a harder path back
  • COVID deaths remain at ~100 / day

Whew, that’s a lot, I’d be happy about my prediction powers if only half of it came true. There are a few other events that I believe will happen, but not sure exactly when:

  • Another George-Floyd-like murder of a BIPOC sparks renewed protests
  • Migrant crisis in Europe heats up again
  • Far-right / fascist leaders elected in another country (trend continues)

Again, I’d love your thoughts!

– Schimmy

2 thoughts on “Predictions for the next year

  1. Hmm, so let’s see how I did as of Oct 1st:

    Overall I overestimated the COVID deaths (seems like we’ve been getting better at treating cases – although I did more or less predict the scale of COVID in the US), predicted RBG would die in December instead of September, and preditcted a stock market crash which has not happened yet (I predict this will happen in October). I also expected Congress to pass SOMETHING for unemployment benefits, and I’m frankly surprised by not even a compromise bill.

    Otherwise, I think I did pretty well – although somehow I missed out on CA’s fire season … I blame that on writing this while on the east coast :)

  2. New prediction: CA Gov Newsom will ban fracking by March 2020 – he’s been holding off partially to keep from influencing the national races, but also because the pressure hasn’t been there yet, and that will change quickly after the election concludes.

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